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Precautionary risk management : dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : 單行本
副題名:	dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society
作者:	JablonowskiMark, 1955-
出版地:	Basingstoke [England] ; New York
出版者:	Palgrave Macmillan;
出版年:	2006
面頁冊數:	1 online resource (xiii, 168 p.)ill. :
標題:	Risk management. -
標題:	Emergency management. -
標題:	BUSINESS & ECONOMICS - Insurance -
電子資源:	http://www.palgraveconnect.com/doifinder/10.1057/9780230627659An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click for information
附註:	Description based on print version record
ISBN:	9780230627659electronic bk.
ISBN:	023062765Xelectronic bk.
ISBN:	cloth
ISBN:	hardback
ISBN:	1280824379
ISBN:	9781280824371
內容註:	Cover Contents List of Tables and Figures Preface: A World of Hazards Acknowledgements 1 Statistical Risk and its Treatment 1.1 Economic optimization and cost/benefit analysis 1.2 The nature of risk 1.3 Using expected values 1.4 Determining probabilities from data 1.5 Extending the credibility of statistical results 1.6 Uncertainty due to knowledge imperfections 1.7 Generalized uncertainty and the "10 percent rule" 2 The ABC's of High-Stakes Decisions 2.1 The "iceberg" model of risk 2.2 Why expected value decision-making doesn't work 2.3 Decisions when probabilities are unknown, or irrelevant 2.4 The dilemma of precaution 2.5 Can precaution make things worse? 2.6 Modifying expected values for imperfect knowledge 2.7 Utility and risk aversion 2.8 Where does insurance fit in? 2.9 Fatalism, by default? 3 Practical Precaution 3.1 Is everything risky? 3.2 Defining the "precautionary region" 3.3 Integrating measurement uncertainty 3.4 Taking "reasonable" precautions 3.5 Protecting human life 3.6 The importance of proper metrics 3.7 Reasonable precautions and human evolution 3.8 Facing the limits of practicality 4 Precaution and Progress: Identifying Alternatives 4.1 A wider view of planning 4.2 Assessing alternatives 4.3 An illustrative example 4.4 Natural vs. man-made risk 4.5 Shifting the burden of proof 4.6 Alternatives assessment vs. post-fact risk management 4.7 Post-fact risk management and the status quo 4.8 The community commitment 5 Public Policy and the Rise of Precautionary Regulation 5.1 The status of precautionary regulation 5.2 Strict liability and man-made perils 5.3 Precautionary regulation and free enterprise 6 Science and Precaution 6.1 More science, not less 6.2 Probability, decision and the science of risk assessment 6.3 Exploratory modeling 6.4 Science and objectivity 6.5 Precaution and commerce 6.6 The developing science of precaution 7 Communicating about Risk 7.1 The meaning(s) of the word "risk" 7.2 The lay perception of risk 7.3 Effective risk communication 7.4 The feedback process 8 The Future of Risk 8.1 Is risk increasing? 8.2 Cost/benefit revisited 8.3 Reconciling fatalism and precaution 8.4 Shaping the future 8.5 Can we get there from here? Appendix A: A Working Model of Precaution A.1 An introduction to fuzzy sets A.2 Formalizing linguistic rules using fuzzy sets A.3 Fuzzy measurement A.4 Building a working model A.5 Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and human reasoning A.6 Using the model Appendix B: The Precautionary Risk Manager's Bookshelf Appendix C: A Concise Statement of the "Precautionary Principle" Appendix D: A Glossary of High-Stakes Risk Management Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P R --T$8243.

Precautionary risk management : dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society
Jablonowski, Mark

Precautionary risk management : dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society / Mark Jablonowski. - Basingstoke [England] ; New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2006. - 1 online resource (xiii, 168 p.) ; ill..
Cover.
Description based on print version record.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 9780230627659ISBN 023062765XISBN 1280824379ISBN 9781280824371
Risk management.Emergency management.BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Insurance

Precautionary risk management : dealing with catastrophic loss potentials in business, the community and society
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327 1 $a Cover $a Contents $a List of Tables and Figures $a Preface: A World of Hazards $a Acknowledgements $a 1 Statistical Risk and its Treatment $a 1.1 Economic optimization and cost/benefit analysis $a 1.2 The nature of risk $a 1.3 Using expected values $a 1.4 Determining probabilities from data $a 1.5 Extending the credibility of statistical results $a 1.6 Uncertainty due to knowledge imperfections $a 1.7 Generalized uncertainty and the "10 percent rule" $a 2 The ABC's of High-Stakes Decisions $a 2.1 The "iceberg" model of risk $a 2.2 Why expected value decision-making doesn't work $a 2.3 Decisions when probabilities are unknown, or irrelevant $a 2.4 The dilemma of precaution $a 2.5 Can precaution make things worse? $a 2.6 Modifying expected values for imperfect knowledge $a 2.7 Utility and risk aversion $a 2.8 Where does insurance fit in? $a 2.9 Fatalism, by default? $a 3 Practical Precaution $a 3.1 Is everything risky? $a 3.2 Defining the "precautionary region" $a 3.3 Integrating measurement uncertainty $a 3.4 Taking "reasonable" precautions $a 3.5 Protecting human life $a 3.6 The importance of proper metrics $a 3.7 Reasonable precautions and human evolution $a 3.8 Facing the limits of practicality $a 4 Precaution and Progress: Identifying Alternatives $a 4.1 A wider view of planning $a 4.2 Assessing alternatives $a 4.3 An illustrative example $a 4.4 Natural vs. man-made risk $a 4.5 Shifting the burden of proof $a 4.6 Alternatives assessment vs. post-fact risk management $a 4.7 Post-fact risk management and the status quo $a 4.8 The community commitment $a 5 Public Policy and the Rise of Precautionary Regulation $a 5.1 The status of precautionary regulation $a 5.2 Strict liability and man-made perils $a 5.3 Precautionary regulation and free enterprise $a 6 Science and Precaution $a 6.1 More science, not less $a 6.2 Probability, decision and the science of risk assessment $a 6.3 Exploratory modeling $a 6.4 Science and objectivity $a 6.5 Precaution and commerce $a 6.6 The developing science of precaution $a 7 Communicating about Risk $a 7.1 The meaning(s) of the word "risk" $a 7.2 The lay perception of risk $a 7.3 Effective risk communication $a 7.4 The feedback process $a 8 The Future of Risk $a 8.1 Is risk increasing? $a 8.2 Cost/benefit revisited $a 8.3 Reconciling fatalism and precaution $a 8.4 Shaping the future $a 8.5 Can we get there from here? $a Appendix A: A Working Model of Precaution $a A.1 An introduction to fuzzy sets $a A.2 Formalizing linguistic rules using fuzzy sets $a A.3 Fuzzy measurement $a A.4 Building a working model $a A.5 Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and human reasoning $a A.6 Using the model $a Appendix B: The Precautionary Risk Manager's Bookshelf $a Appendix C: A Concise Statement of the "Precautionary Principle" $a Appendix D: A Glossary of High-Stakes Risk Management $a Index $a A $a B $a C $a D $a E $a F $a G $a H $a I $a J $a K $a L $a M $a N $a O $a P $a R --T$8243.
520 $a High-stakes, catastrophic, risk potentials are by their very nature terminal and irreversible: We don't get a second-chance. Suggestions that we treat these risks as we do the "statistical" risks we face, using simple cost/ benefit analyses based on averages, just don't make sense. The problem with catastrophe is that, in the long run, there may be no long run. The only sensible approaches to catastrophic risks remain precautionary avoidance, and fatalistic acceptance ("why worry?"). Precautionary avoidance brings with it its own set of issues. How do we make progress, without exposing ourselves to precautionary dilemmas ("doomed if we do, doomed if we don't")? We suggest here that avoidance of precautionary dilemmas, via alternatives assessment and other strategies, should be the driving force behind risk-based science. To the extent some degree of fatalism may be inescapable, suggestions are offered for basing this response on reasoned acceptance rather than mere acquiescence.
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